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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-07-11T04:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-07-11T04:38Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47511/-1
CME Note: Faint CME observed to the NE in STEREO A COR2, and NNW in SOHO LASCO C2, also NNW but heavily pylon obscured in SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1. The source is likely a large, diffuse area of slow dimming and field line movement on the NW disk in SDO AIA 171/193, starting as early as 2026-07-11T20:30Z and centered approximately around N45W35, and may be separable with more weak field line movement to the NW in SDO AIA 171 around 2026-07-11T02:51Z but it is not too distinct. This diffuse, slow source is likely also responsible for the preceeding, overlapping CME: 2026-07-11T04:38Z. | Arrival notes: Characterized in SOLAR-1 parameters by an initial jump in B_total from an already elevated background at 10.6nT to 14.5nT, B_z initially northward. Initial jump in speed from ~350 km/s to ~400 km/s, density from ~2.84p/cc to ~6.36p/cc, and temperature 60k Kelvin to 194k Kelvin.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-07-14T14:38Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-14T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/47516/1
Model Inputs:
2026-07-11T04:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=22.0, Lat.=38.0, Speed=488.0, HalfAngle=29.0, Time21.5=2026-07-11T11:13Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-07-14T12:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260711_111300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260711_111300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260711_111300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260711_111300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260711_111300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260711_111300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260711_111300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260711_111300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260711_111300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260711_111300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260711_111300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260711_111300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260711_111300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260711_111300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260711_111300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260711_111300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260711_111300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 68.83 hour(s)
Difference: 2.63 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2026-07-11T17:48Z

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